美元：汇率在下滑

美元衰落似乎终于要开始了.但它仍旧不能帮助美国摆脱赤字.

对任何货币来说,经常项目赤字都应该是个不幸的消息,即使是美元,现实也终于开始与教科书上的规律吻合了:在过去的一个月左右美元对欧元下跌6个百分点, 对日元下跌7个百分点,即使在广义贸易加权基础方面美元也下跌了3个百分点.这个星期美元跌破了兑8人民币的关口,这是自从去年7月中国放弃其1美元兑 8.28人民币的固定汇率制以来的首次.然而在最近一轮主要因通货膨胀的恐慌而造成的市场动荡之前,我们就已经有足够理由相信美元将正如经济学规律所揭示 的那样开始“迟来的”下滑.

在大家开始谈论这将是一个转折点时,我有两个警告希望大家考虑一下.首先,美元对其下跌的抵抗并没有人们想象中的激烈—尤其是一旦你关注欧元,日元和人民 币的行情,你对此就更有体会.美元的加权贸易指数自2002年已经下跌了18%.高盛集团的吉姆奥尼尔指出,去年美元兑加元持续下跌,而一些重要的新兴市 场的货币例如韩元兑美元也是一路上涨.

第二个需要注意的地方是如果你留心欧元和日元的汇价,你就会发现美元兑这两种货币的价格之前也曾经达到这样的水平,并且也只是在不久前.在2005年初, 美元兑欧元和日元比现在更弱,但是在其后的一年里面美元强势反弹.亚洲中央银行一直以来曾为了维持美国的经常项目赤字和美元汇率而购买了数量惊人的美国债 券,并不担心美元会继续走弱.另外众多的石油出口国也被认为一直以来至少把他们额外收入中的一部分用于购买美元计价资产,包括各种国库券.然而作为美国经 常项目基金重要来源,上述的双方并没有丝毫表现出要把手中持有的美元卖出的意思.而且即使是这个星期,一些投资者仍然认为投资美元是一种保值措施.

但我们也有很多的理由去驳斥以上的谨慎,因为美国在最近做出了一些基本政策上的调整,这将有碍美元回升.首先是美元失去了一个临时的靠山.去年美国公司获准对其从外国获得的利润施行低税率.但是现在,这个帮助减少美国对外贸易赤字的规定已经被撤销了,美国的赤字加大

第二个转变与国际间利息率的差别有关.面对保持坚挺的欧元,美元一直以来都是靠联邦储备局的加息政策支撑(自从2004年6月以来连续16次加息0.25 个百分点).如今形势发生了改变:市场担心联邦储备局在到达5%后会停止加息,而欧洲中央银行将会继续加息而且很有可能不久之后日本银行也将加入这一行 列.

第三点:市场对于经济前景的看法发生改变.鉴于活跃的美国经济被预期在今年下半年经济增长速度放缓,分析家预期缓慢增长的欧元区和日本的经济将加速增长— 即使是在欧

洲这一迹象在信心调查方面也比在市场数据方面要明显得多.第四也是最紧要的一点,市场对美国经济的忧虑加深.华尔街对美国通货膨胀的担忧要比几 个月前大--市场对于联储局新任主席本·伯南克是否有足够的精力应对美国的通货膨胀不敢过于乐观.

有人提出了一个很好的想法说美元的滑落可能预示着一轮对全球经济不平衡的和平调整(美元最近一轮下跌始于一份上月来自于G7关于全球经济的严厉通报).但 是不要希望过高了.尽管美元下跌使得出口价格降低而进口价格上升,有助于减少美国的经常项目赤字,但要在这方面取得进步美元将不得不付出很多.事实上,尽 管这几年来美元在大部分时间一直走弱,但美国的经常项目赤字却是连续增加了好几年了.无论如何,美国在今后一段时间内将不得不继续加息而其他国家的消费将 增加.

翻译：camby

原文：currencies: on the slide

The dollar's decline seems finally to be under way. It still won't balance America's books

A GIGANTIC current-account deficit ought to be bad news for a currency. For the dollar, reality seems at last to be coming into line with the textbooks. In the past month or so the greenback has lost 6% against the euro, 7% against the yen and3% on a broad trade-weighted basis. This week it dipped below eight Yuan for the first time since China abandoned its fixed rate of 8.28 to the dollar last July. Even before the markets' recent upset, caused largely by inflation worries, there was reason to believe that the dollar was on the prolonged slide that economic logic suggests is overdue

Before anybody starts talking about a turning point it is worth considering two caveats. First, the dollar has defied gravity less dramatically than many people think—especially once you cast your gaze beyond the euro, the yen and the Yuan. The dollar's broad trade-weighted index has fallen by 18% since February 2002. Last year, notes Jim O'Neill, of Goldman Sachs, the greenback lost against the Canadian dollar (which has a weight almost as big as the euro's) and some important emerging-market currencies such as the South Korean won (which counts for about the same as the pound sterling)

The second caveat is that once you look at the euro and the yen, the dollar has been here before, and not that long ago. At the start of 2005, the greenback was weaker against both the euro and the yen than it is now, but gained against both currencies in the course of the year. Asian central banks, which have helped sustain both the current-account deficit and the dollar by buying Treasury bonds in startlingly large quantities, have little interest in a weaker greenback. Oil-exporting countries are also thought to have been putting at least some of their extra revenues into dollar-denominated assets, including treasuries. Neither source of current-account funding looks likely to dry up just yet. And even this week, some investors have shown that they see the dollar as a safe haven.

Against these caveats there are a number of reasons to argue that something fundamental may just have shifted against the dollar. The first is the removal of a temporary prop. Last year American companies were allowed a lower tax rate on profits repatriated from abroad. Now, that support for the external deficit and the dollar has been taken away

A second change has to do with international differences in interest rates. Until recently, the dollar was helped by the Federal Reserve's policy of raising interest rates (a quarter of a percentage point at 16 consecutive meetings after June 2004) at a time when the Europeans held steady. Now the tables are turned: markets are worried that the Fed will stop at 5%, but the European Central Bank is raising interest rates and will probably soon be joined by the Bank of Japan.

This is linked to a third point: there has been a change in beliefs about how economies are faring. Whereas the rattling pace of America's economy is expected to slacken in the second half of the year, the slower-growing euro area and Japan are thought to be picking up—even if in Europe this is still more evident in confidence surveys than in hard figures. Fourth and most pressing, there are deeper concerns about the American economy. Wall Street is much more worried about inflation than it was a few months ago—and markets are yet to be convinced that the Fed's newish chairman, Ben Bernanke, will tackle inflation with sufficient vigour.

It would be nice to think that the dollar's decline heralded an orderly adjustment of global imbalances (the greenback's latest tumble may have been started by a stern communiqué from the G7 last month about the world economy). But do not get your hopes up. Although a fall in the dollar should help to reduce America's current- account deficit, by making exports cheaper and imports dearer, it will have to go a lot further to make much of a dent. Indeed, the current-account deficit has carried on climbing these past few years, even though the greenback has been weakening for most of the time. One way or another, America is still going to have to save more and the rest of the world save less