胡最终成行的华盛顿之旅

“国事访问”尚存分歧亲密会晤亦未可期

“非常积极，特别复杂”，本周，乔治布什如是矛盾地刻划了美中关系。4月20日，其中国同行胡锦涛将首次以国家元首的身份造访白宫，介时，布什将会竭力处 理好两国关系，在华府内部，许多官员对之简单的持以消极态度。两位领导人不希望两国间的联系因美中的分歧而受到严重损害，渴望能够避免这种情况的发生。不 过，在很大程度上，这将取决于他们如何处理其各自国内的舆论。

这是一个格外敏感的时刻。美国的11月份中期选举日益临近，它促使民主、共和两党去迎合选民们对中国问题的关注，据说中国经济的快速增长会威胁到美国的就 业。华府希望中国能助其挫败伊朗和朝鲜的核企图，而北京政府则希望美国能够遏制台湾，该地区的08年总统选举为本不稳定的两岸关系推波助澜，激起了新的不 安因素。但是，双方都不认为对方做出了足够的努力。

胡尤其渴望这次访问，这是他自02年出任中共总书记、03年担任国家主席以来第一次访问华盛顿，他希望籍此在国内建立起其作为国家元首的威望。去年九月份 他便本该成行，但卡特里娜飓风使该计划泡汤。在美国，许多人以怀疑的眼光看待中国，这使得布什不想对中国表现的太过友好，因而他并未给予胡最高礼遇。中国 官员坚持称这次访问为国事访问，而白宫却并没有以该级别的外交礼节来接待。国事访问会包含一个正式的宴会，而迎接胡的仅是一个餐会。

对胡而言，这样的细节很是重要。像布什一样，他在国内也面临压力。中共每五年一次的全国代表大会即将于明年召开，为此，中共已开始有所动作。为确保能成功 的将其党羽安插在各个关键位置，胡需要所有他能够集结的权力。正如在美国国会内部一样，中国对全球化也有一种日益增长的的忧虑。胡希望在布什面前表现得强 硬些，而这就意味着，他不能向美国的贸易要求妥协。

但胡也做出了和解的姿态。中国并不想要一场可能会危害其最大海外市场的贸易战争。根据美国人的估算，去年美国对中国的贸易逆差达到了2020亿美元，为 此，上周一个中国代表团开始了在美国的采购之旅，预期达成总价值约150亿美元的交易。做为此活动的一部分，4月11日，中国在一份合同上签字，购买价值 46亿美元的80架波音飞机，并且宣称将恢复进口自03年因疯牛病而遭禁的美国牛肉。

此外，违反知识产权的犯罪活动在中国很是猖獗，为回应美国人对此的忧虑，本周，中国政府采取了一系列措施。北京一些贩卖盗版DVD的商店被关闭，执法人员 走上街头，敦促市民不要购买盗版光碟。三月下旬，当局命令计算机制造商在电脑上预装正版操作系统，借此以防止零售商使用盗版产品。

然而，这些友好举措未必会有太大的作用。布什敦促胡利用这次访问的机会，就中国被低估的货币做些说明。但胡也不太可能会言及实质性内容。最近几周，中国稍 稍加快了人民币上调的速率，但不愿进一步做出更大的动作，而这正是那些美国政客们所要求的，他们认为人民币被低估了40%之多。胡所关心的主要是其国内的 稳定问题，而快速的改革会对此构成威胁。对胡来说幸运的是，布什不同于国会的一些议员，他不愿采取强硬政策。一份指责中国操纵其货币的财政部报告被推迟至 胡访问结束后发表。即使在国会内部，冷静者也许仍然占优。上个月，两位参议员撤消了一份法案，该法案威胁说，如果中国不能对其货币做出大幅度重新评估，就 将对进口的中国货物征收27.5%的关税。

另外，还有其它一些修复两国关系的举措。去年，美国政府首次建议，中国在世界上应扮演“负责任的利益攸关者”形象，中国对此做出了热情积极的响应。中国乐 意世人关注其在力促朝鲜放弃核武计划中的斡旋角色。本周，他试图利用在东京举行的一个非公开讨论会，劝说朝鲜重启谈判进程，其时，美朝均有高级官员与会。 然而，这些努力似乎并未成功。同样，中国认为不应以国际制裁或暴力方式解决伊朗核争端。但他也未曾公开威胁，利用其联合国否决权来阻止美国逐步对伊朗施 压。

最近几个月，中国甚至做出一些试探性动作，希望在同达赖喇嘛和梵蒂冈的代表会谈中取得进展。只是鲜有人信短期内会有何突破。但是上个月，明显是为了取悦布 什，中国允许一个西藏尼姑赴美就医，该尼姑因直言支持达赖喇嘛已被羁押了14年。然而，胡仍不愿放松对他持异议者的打压。由于担心快速的经济社会变革会触 发社会动荡，他现在反而加大了控制力度。布什最近称中国为一个“民主的良机”，不过，在这方面，胡会令他失望的。

翻译：dgrkl

原文：Mr Hu finally goes to Washington

A state visit in Chinese eyes, but not in America's. Don't expect a love-in

“VERY positive and complex.” That is how George Bush ambivalently characterised his country's relations with China this week. When his counterpart, Hu Jintao, pays his first presidential visit to the White House on April 20th, Mr Bush will struggle to manage a relationship that many in Washington view more simply as negative. The two leaders are anxious to avoid letting their disputes seriously damage ties. But much will depend on how they manage opinion at home.

This is a particularly sensitive time. The approach of America's mid-term elections in November is encouraging both Democrats and Republicans to play to voters' concerns about the threat China's rapid economic rise is said to pose to American jobs. The administration wants China to help check the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. China wants America to restrain Taiwan, where the approach of presidential elections in 2008 is already threatening to whip up new turbulence in the island's uneasy relationship with the mainland. Neither side thinks the other is delivering enough.

Mr Hu is especially keen for this visit, his first to Washington since he became Communist Party chief in 2002 and president in 2003, to establish his credentials at home as a statesman. He should have gone last September, but the trip was blown off course by Hurricane Katrina. However, Mr Bush, anxious not to appear too friendly with a country that so many Americans view with suspicion, is not laying out the full red carpet. Chinese officials insist on calling this a state visit. The White House is not using that level of protocol. State visits involve a formal dinner; Mr Hu will only be given lunch.

Such niceties are important to Mr Hu. Like Mr Bush, he is under pressure at home. The party is beginning to gear up for its five-yearly congress next year and Mr Hu needs all the authority he can muster to ensure that he succeeds in placing his protégés in key positions. As in America's Congress, there is growing anxiety in China about the impact of globalisation. Mr Hu wants to look strong in the presence of Mr Bush. This means not appearing to capitulate to America's trade demands.

But Mr Hu is making conciliatory gestures. China does not want a trade war that could damage its biggest overseas market. To help reduce America's record trade deficit with China, valued by the Americans at $202 billion last year (see chart), a Chinese delegation last week embarked on a buying tour in America that is expected to result in some $15 billion-worth of deals. As part of this, on April 11th, China signed a deal agreeing to buy 80 Boeing planes worth $4.6 billion, and said it would resume buying American beef, banned since 2003 because of mad-cow fears.

In response to American concerns about rampant violations of intellectual-property rights in China, the Chinese authorities have staged a show of resolve in recent weeks. Some shops in Beijing selling pirated DVDs have been closed. Banners have appeared on the streets urging citizens not to buy them. In late March the government ordered computer manufacturers to pre-load licensed operating-system software onto machines to prevent retailers using pirated versions.

Such shows of goodwill are unlikely to have much impact. Mr Bush has urged Mr Hu to use his visit to make some announcement on China's undervalued currency. But there is little likelihood that Mr Hu will say anything important about this. In recent weeks, China has allowed the yuan to appreciate a little more quickly, but shows no desire to take the big steps demanded by those American politicians who argue that it is as much as 40% undervalued. Mr Hu's primary concern is about stability at home, and a rapid revaluation would threaten this. Fortunately for him, Mr Bush, unlike some members of Congress, appears disinclined to take up cudgels. The release of a Treasury report, which could accuse China of manipulating its currency, has been delayed until after the visitor leaves. Even in Congress cooler heads might still prevail. Last month two senators withdrew a bill that threatened 27.5% tariffs on Chinese imports if China failed to revalue its currency by a large margin.

Mr Hu's officials have responded with a show of enthusiasm to the Bush administration's suggestions, first made last year, that China's role in the world should be one of “responsible stakeholder”. China likes to draw attention to its mediating role in efforts to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear-weapons programme. It tried to take advantage of a private forum in Tokyo this week, which senior North Korean and American officials attended, to persuade North

Korea to resume negotiations. But these efforts appeared unsuccessful. Likewise, China says the Iranian nuclear dispute should be resolved without sanctions or force. But it has not publicly threatened to use its UN veto to block any American attempt to escalate pressure on Iran.

In recent months, China has even shown tentative signs of wanting progress in talks with representatives of the Dalai Lama and of the Vatican. Few expect breakthroughs soon. But in a gesture clearly aimed at pleasing Mr Bush, China last month allowed a Tibetan nun who had been imprisoned for 14 years for her outspoken support of the Dalai Lama to go to America for medical treatment. Still, Mr Hu has shown no real willingness to ease his suppression of dissent. Worried that rapid economic and social change could trigger instability, he is tightening controls. Mr Bush recently described China as a “big opportunity for democracy”. On this, Mr Hu will disappoint him.