中国的银行：巨龙的羁绊

如果银行界表现理想，那么中国可以发展得更快

中国的经济增长速度依然令人咋舌。最近一波的增长高潮是由新一轮银行放贷加速所推动的。截止到今年三月份，大陆各金融机构信贷增长达到15％，高于官方 制定的目标12—14％。UBS的首席亚洲经济学家Jonathan Anderson指出，贷款额再次走高，直逼信贷火爆的2003年的水平。本周，政府当局已采取行动，来遏制这股信贷洪流。

但是，如果中国的银行处理信贷得当，中国的发展步伐可以迈得更快一些。资金长期分配不当造成许多严重后果，而堆积如山的不良贷款仅仅是这些后果中最显眼 的一部分。许多数量更大的贷款尽管没有转为坏帐，但是其回报率是微乎其微的。在一份将于5月4日发表的研究报告中，麦肯锡咨询公司的经济智囊——麦肯锡全 球研究所估算：如果各银行懂得如何放贷，中国的GDP将猛增3200多亿美元，即增长16％。

智囊团估计，通过削减开支、适度增设电子付款系统、发展债券和股票交易业务以提高运营效率，将给银行带来大约600亿美元的资金。此外，将资金转贷给生 产能力更高的经济部门可以另外获得约2600亿美元的收入。各银行应该将资金由效益不佳的国有企业转向私营企业，后者占GDP比重的52％，而在未偿付债 务表中仅占27％（见图表）。这不仅将提高投资的效益，而且会给广大小储民带来更多的回报。

说话容易行动难。在过去的几年时间里，由于中国政府给予巨额的紧急财政援助，银行已经完成了自身的结构调整。但是，改变原有的工作模式需要时间：国际货币组织的经济学家在最近发表一篇文章中指出，中国银行的贷款发放中，并没有更加注重商业性的迹象。

即使是改革中充当主力的行业监管者，也似乎不愿打破一些现行的规章制度。允许境外银行入股国内银行，无疑将有助于引进有益的竞争并加速现代化进程。但 是，美国花旗银行领导的国外财团，其长期打算是要购买广发银行——一个现对较小的金融机构——85％的股权（GDB），而该计划似乎已经落空了。在4月 25日，中国银监会主席赖小民说，他认为“广发银行的案例不应该打破现行的规章制度”。这些条例规定，外国投资者购买中国银行股权的比例不能超过25％， 单一投资者购买的上限为20％。

处境艰难的银行加重了中国对于宏观经济杠杆的依赖。中央银行于4月27日出人意料地升息，并提出了一些指导方针以控制银行的借贷。有人估计，银行将在下 个月（五一长假之后），提高最低储备金率。这类自上而下的指示已经保证了中国经济在当前这个经济周期里持续平稳地发展，避免了过去数十年来经济强烈的波动 再次发生。然而，对于最近的放贷潮会产生其他一系列的坏帐以及低效益的贷款这种担心依然存在。倘若北京的领导人推

行必要的改革，创建一个能够合理分配资本 的银行体系，他们会发现保证经济持续发展会变得更容易——而且中国人民也会更加富裕。

翻译：edenbahamut

原文：Chinese banks: Drag on the dragon

If its banks worked, China could grow even faster

THE Chinese economy continues to astound. Behind its latest surge (see article) lies a renewed acceleration of bank lending. Credit growth at the mainland's financial institutions reached 15% in the year to March, just above the official target of 12-14%. Loan volumes are again nearing the levels of the 2003 credit boom, notes Jonathan Anderson, chief Asia economist at UBS. This week the authorities acted to stem the flood.

But China could sustain an even faster pace if its banks did their job properly. A mountain of bad debts is only the most visible sign of the persistent misallocation of capital. Many more loans do not go bad but yield only negligible returns. In a study to be published on May 4th the McKinsey Global Institute, the consultancy's economics think-tank, calculates that China's GDP would be a staggering $320 billion, or 16%, higher if its lenders knew how to lend.

Around $60 billion, the think-tank reckons, could be gained from raising the banks' operating efficiency by cutting costs, putting in proper electronic payment systems, and developing bond and equity trading. The rest—some $260 billion—would come from redirecting loans to more productive parts of the economy. The banks should switch funds from poorly run state firms to private enterprises, which contribute 52% of GDP but account for only 27% of outstanding loans (see chart). This would both increase the efficiency of investment and raise returns for China's army of small savers.

Easier said than done. Aided by generous government bail-outs, the banks have worked to restructure themselves over the past several years. But changing old habits takes time: a recent paper by economists at the International Monetary Fund found little evidence that Chinese banks' lending decisions had become more commercial.

Even the industry regulator, which has been leading the reform effort, seems unwilling to break some taboos. Allowing foreign banks to take control of domestic rivals would undoubtedly help to introduce healthy competition and speed modernisation. Yet the long-running attempt of a consortium led by America's Citigroup to purchase 85% of Guangdong Development Bank (GDB), a relatively small institution, seems to have hit a brick wall. On April 25th Lai Xiaomin, directorgeneral of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that he believed the “GDB case should not break the current rules”. These rules limit foreign investors to buying a total of 25% of a Chinese bank. No single investor is allowed more than 20%.

The poor state of the banks increases China's reliance on macroeconomic tools. The central bank raised interest rates surprisingly on April 27th, and announced guidelines to control banks' lending. It is expected to raise their reserve requirements next month, after China's spring holidays. Such top-down direction has served the economy fairly well in this cycle, averting the violent swings of earlier decades. Still, there is little doubt that this latest lending boom will produce another batch of bad debts and low-yielding loans. If the leaders in Beijing carried out the reforms needed to create a banking system that allocates capital properly, they would find the economy easier to steer—and their countrymen would be better off.